Holiday shoppers plan to spend about $118 billion at small businesses this season, an 8.3% increase. That figure comes from an Intuit QuickBooks survey published October 19. The company surveyed 1,002 small business owners and 6,000 US adults in August.
For solo sellers and service providers, the numbers point to a busier fourth quarter. They also show how many shoppers now expect to find small brands on social media.
What The Survey Actually Found
Consumers plan to spend $278 billion overall, up 5.7% from an estimated $263 billion in 2025. Small businesses should capture 43% of holiday budgets, compared with 41% last year and 36% in 2024. Some 89% of shoppers say backing small firms over big retailers matters.
Among owners, 76% expect more holiday revenue than last year, up from 65% a year ago. Last season, 40% beat their forecasts and 51% met them. About 67% started preparing by September, up from 64% last year. Only 47% call this season critically or very important to revenue, down from 59%. About 23% of shoppers say social platforms like Instagram and TikTok are where they most likely buy from small businesses online.
Why This Matters For Self-Employed Owners
The survey is optimistic, but costs are rising. Roughly 38% of small businesses have raised or plan to raise prices, and another 43% are considering it. Only 9% of shoppers see price increases as fully justified.
Tariffs and shipping add pressure. Some 48% of owners bought extra inventory before tariffs took effect, and 36% of them are restocking at higher prices. About 41% of shoppers expect higher shipping and delivery costs. The research comes from QuickBooks itself, so read it as sponsor data.
What Self-Employed Owners Should Do Next
Set your holiday prices now, and explain any increase clearly. Shoppers accept a price rise more easily when they see the reason, such as materials or shipping. Offer a bundle or a gift option instead of a plain discount to protect margin.
Show up where shoppers look. With nearly one in four buyers turning to social platforms, post product videos and customer stories now. Also prepare for AI search. About 46% of owners say they have taken steps to be easier to find through AI-powered tools.
AI is changing how shoppers buy. The survey found 43% of consumers plan to use AI tools this season, and 15% have let an AI assistant complete a purchase. Clear product pages and accurate listings help those tools recommend you.
What To Watch Next
Watch early November sales for signs that spending matches the forecast. Retail data will show whether online sellers capture the growth, as in August, when online spending rose 2.6%.
Hiring plans matter too. Retailers lean on gig help, as we reported when retailers planned fewer holiday hires and more gig workers. Freelancers with fulfillment, design, or customer service skills may find extra work. Pitch seasonal retainers early, before small shops fill their holiday schedules.
Finally, check the survey’s tone. The report calls this a season of cautious optimism, with growth that varies by income and age. Plan for a good season, but keep cash on hand in case spending falls short.
