Small business optimism slipped below its 52-year average in September, according to CFO Dive’s coverage of the latest NFIB survey, published October 13. Owners pointed to a hard hiring market and rising costs as the biggest drags.
That mood matters to solo operators because small firms are often your clients. When they get cautious, project budgets tighten, and when they cannot find staff, they sometimes turn to contractors instead.
What The NFIB Survey Actually Found
NFIB’s uncertainty index rose one point to 90, which sits 22 points above its historical average. Just 7% of owners said now is a good time to expand, down five points from August.
Labor remains the top concern. Some 26% of owners named low labor quality and availability as their single biggest problem, up three points, while 20% named inflation, up four points. About 32% said they could not fill open positions, and among the 51% of firms trying to hire, 87% reported few or no qualified applicants. NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg said owners are “proceeding with caution.”
Why This Matters For Self-Employed Business Owners
A hiring squeeze is a double-edged signal. Businesses that cannot fill roles may look for freelancers to cover gaps, which can mean steady demand for skilled specialists, but cautious owners also delay big purchases and long engagements.
Inflation cuts the same way for you. Your own costs for fuel, supplies and software are climbing at the moment clients are watching every dollar, so pricing conversations may get harder even when demand holds up.
What Self-Employed Owners Should Do Next
Lean into the labor gap. If you offer skills that small firms struggle to hire for, such as bookkeeping, design, marketing or technical help, pitch short, clearly scoped projects that let a hesitant client say yes without a long commitment.
Protect your margins at the same time. Review your rates against current costs, spell out price-adjustment terms in new agreements, and keep a few months of operating expenses in reserve in case a client pauses work.
What To Watch Next
The next survey will show whether the sharp drop in expansion plans is a blip or a trend. Keep an eye on the July optimism reading we covered for a sense of how quickly sentiment has shifted.
Also watch inflation and interest rate decisions, since both feed directly into owners’ spending plans. Our look at another recent small business check-up offers a useful comparison on how resilient owners say they feel.
