OnDeck and Ocrolus released their Small Business Cash Flow Trend Report on May 1, 2026, and the headline number is striking. Cash flow has overtaken inflation as the number one concern for small business owners, with 31 percent flagging it as their top worry compared with 29 percent who pointed at inflation. This is the first time cash flow has held that top slot since the survey began.
For self-employed owners, the survey of 651 small business borrowers also tells a story about confidence. A record 93 percent expect growth in the next twelve months, but the way they are funding that growth has shifted in ways that matter for any solopreneur planning to expand a service line, hire a contractor, or stock more inventory.
What The Report Actually Found
The survey, drawn from working capital borrowers and more than 3.69 million small-business loan applications over the past 15 months, shows that 32 percent of owners expect significant growth, an all-time high. Yet 76 percent now bypass traditional banks for capital, also a survey high, and lean instead on alternative lenders, business credit cards, and private credit lines.
AI adoption keeps climbing as well. The report says 58 percent of small businesses now use AI in some part of their operations, up from prior quarters, and 89 percent of those users report a positive impact on their business. The cash flow concern sits alongside a clear picture of confidence, technology adoption, and a hard pivot away from bank financing.
Why This Matters For Self-Employed Owners
A solopreneur or microbusiness owner who waits for a bank line of credit can lose months that a competitor, who finances through invoice factoring, a card spend program, or a working capital advance, simply does not. The 76 percent figure signals that the bar for moving on a non-bank product has dropped, and most owners around you have already crossed it.
Cash flow as the top concern also reframes how owners should think about pricing and payment terms. If your invoices net 30 days but your COGS hits at order, you are financing your customers, and that gap is exactly where most small-business cash crunches start.
What Self-Employed Owners Should Do Next
Pull the last 90 days of your business bank statements this week and chart inflows against outflows by week, not by month. A cash flow worry rarely shows up on a monthly P&L until the bank balance is uncomfortably low, and a weekly view surfaces the timing gaps a monthly view smooths over.
Tighten payment terms on your next three invoices to net 14 or net 7 with a 1 percent discount for early payment, and put a recurring 25 percent expense reserve into a separate savings account. Owners who already use AI tools should also review the smallest firms leading AI adoption and copy what is working, since data show AI users are reporting margin gains that can absorb the cash-flow shock the OnDeck report flags.
What To Watch Next
The next ADP National Employment Report drops on May 6 and will offer a hiring read for businesses with under 20 employees, the segment most exposed to cash-flow concerns in this report. A weak number there would corroborate the worry and likely prompt more lenders to tighten terms on small-business credit lines, even at non-bank alternatives.
Watch how the SBA’s National Small Business Week programming on May 5 and 6 specifically addresses cash flow, since the agency tends to time loan and grant program rollouts around the week. A new SBA microloan or working-capital pilot announced during the summit could give bank-bypassing borrowers an option that costs less than current alternative-lender rates.
Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya: Unsplash
