Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published a Liberty Street Economics analysis on October 8, 2026, on how AI use relates to what small business owners expect for hiring and revenue. Authors Will Aarons and Asani Sarkar drew on the 2025 Small Business Credit Survey.
The sample covers employer firms, not one-person shops. Even so, it offers a rare, data-backed look at whether AI is paying off for small operators, which matters to any solo owner deciding where to spend limited time and money.
What The Research Actually Found
Roughly 46 percent of employer firms reported using AI tools, and another 15 percent planned to start within a year. Among users, 63 percent said AI is somewhat or very important to production, and 51 percent had worked it partly or fully into their processes.
The effects so far look modest. About 77 percent of respondents saw no change in labor costs, and only 31 percent reported higher sales. Even so, AI users were more upbeat: their net expectation for hiring was 33 points versus 15 for non-users, and for revenue it was 48 versus 21.
Why This Matters For Self-Employed Workers
The gap between optimism and measured results is the story for solo owners. Adopting AI appears tied to confidence about growth, but most firms have not yet seen savings or sales gains they can point to.
That should temper both hype and fear. You probably do not need to buy every new tool to stay competitive, yet ignoring AI entirely may leave you out of the group that is feeling more positive about demand.
What Self-Employed Workers Should Do Next
Pick one or two uses tied to a clear metric, such as time spent on proposals or hours spent on bookkeeping, and track the before and after. That gives you your own evidence instead of relying on headlines.
Be careful, too, about reading the findings as proof that AI causes growth. The authors note the study does not show whether the brighter expectations come true. Optimistic owners may simply be more willing to try new tools.
What To Watch Next
The analysis relies on data collected from September to November 2025, so newer surveys will show whether adoption and results have moved. Watch for follow-up releases that track actual sales and hiring rather than expectations.
Other recent data points in the same direction, including a FreshBooks survey showing most solopreneurs try AI before paying a person for help. If real gains show up in the numbers, expect pressure on freelancer rates and scopes to follow.
