Retailers plan to hire about 450,000 seasonal workers this Q4, according to a September 23 outlook from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a number that would fall even further below last year’s 461,500 hires, already the lowest seasonal gain since 2008.
For anyone who counts on a seasonal warehouse shift or retail gig to pad their income between October and January, that trend line matters more than any single company’s headcount announcement. Retailers are increasingly filling peak demand with automation and existing staff instead of a big wave of new temporary hires.
What The 2026 Holiday Hiring Outlook Actually Shows
Last year’s 461,500 seasonal retail jobs were already down 15% from 2024’s 543,100, and this year’s projection points to a third straight decline. Transportation and warehousing hiring told a similar story in the 2025 season, adding 266,500 positions, down 12% from the year before.
A handful of retailers have already disclosed their plans: Spirit Halloween is bringing on 52,000 seasonal associates and Michaels more than 10,000. Bigger players like Amazon, Target, Bath & Body Works, and Kohl’s have not yet released their 2026 headcount numbers.
Why This Matters For Self-Employed And Gig Workers
Challenger’s report puts it plainly: retailers are leaning on “automation, existing associates, and on-demand pools” rather than committing to large seasonal hiring waves. That last phrase is worth sitting with, since it names flexible, on-demand labor as one of the ways retailers intend to cover the holiday rush this year.
That could mean fewer traditional seasonal jobs to fall back on, but potentially steadier demand for delivery, rideshare, and task-based gig work as companies route peak-season volume toward flexible labor instead of hiring and training a temporary staff.
What Self-Employed Workers Should Do Next
If you plan to lean on gig work for extra holiday income, sign up early for delivery and warehouse-adjacent gig apps’ surge or peak-season programs, since demand for that kind of flexible labor is exactly what retailers say they are counting on this year. Waiting until December to start could mean missing the best batches or shifts.
Do not treat a traditional seasonal retail job as a guaranteed fallback plan this year. Seasonal hiring is already sitting near a 2008-era low, and this outlook points to it shrinking again.
What To Watch Next
Watch for Amazon, Target, Bath & Body Works, and Kohl’s to announce their own 2026 seasonal headcounts in the coming weeks, since those figures from major employers could shift the overall picture, especially around holiday shipping and fulfillment costs that solo sellers are also bracing for.
Also watch how tariffs and elevated prices, cited as a factor keeping retailers cautious on headcount, play out as the holiday shopping season gets underway.
