Small business confidence improved last month, according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index released July 14, which rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4. That reading sits just under the survey’s 52-year average of 98.0.
For self-employed workers and microbusiness owners, the headline number matters less than what sits underneath it. Owners are more hopeful about the next six months, but they are also paying more for what they buy and raising their own prices to keep up.
What The Survey Found
Expectations for better business conditions rose 10 points in June to a net 13%, the first improvement of the year. Owners expecting higher real sales volumes over the next quarter climbed 8 points to a net 9%.
The Uncertainty Index fell 2 points to 89, though that still sits well above its historical average of 68. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg pointed to lower fuel costs as a source of relief for businesses and consumers alike.
Dunkelberg also flagged the drag. High interest rates and modest economic growth are causing owners to approach hiring and capital spending with caution, he said, even as the six-month outlook brightens.
Why This Matters For Self-Employed Owners
Twenty-one percent of owners named inflation as their single most important business problem, up 3 points from May and the highest share since October 2024. When the business is one person, input costs land directly on take-home pay rather than getting absorbed by a budget line somewhere.
The net share of owners raising average selling prices rose 2 points to a net 38%. That is the fourth consecutive month of rising price increases and the highest level since January 2023.
If your clients or suppliers are themselves small businesses, that figure is a preview of the invoices heading your way. It also tells you what the market will tolerate if you have been sitting on a rate increase.
What Self-Employed Readers Should Do Next
Check your pricing against the survey’s forward-looking signal. A net 32% of owners plan to raise prices in the next three months, down 2 points from May, which suggests peers are already moving and the window to adjust quietly is narrowing.
Look again at borrowing costs while they are easing. The average interest rate paid on short-maturity loans was 7.4% in June, down 0.4 points from May and the lowest since October 2022, so a line of credit or equipment purchase you shelved in the spring may pencil out differently now.
Then stress-test your fuel and materials assumptions. Lower fuel costs drove much of June’s improvement, and that is exactly the kind of input that can reverse without warning for anyone who drives, ships, or sources physical goods.
What To Watch Next
The next SBET report arrives on the second Tuesday of August with July data, and the inflation line is the one to watch. Our coverage of the May index falling to 95.3 on war fears shows how fast sentiment can swing on an outside shock.
Hiring is the other signal. A seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported job openings they could not fill in June, up 3 points, and a net 11% plan to create new jobs in the next three months. When small firms cannot hire but still need the work done, contract and freelance demand usually picks up the slack.
Capital spending plans are worth tracking too. Twenty percent of owners plan capital outlays in the next six months, up 4 points and the highest reading of the year, which tends to precede project work for solo consultants, designers, and trades.
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