The Conference Board and The Business Council reported on October 15 that its CEO Confidence Index fell to 46 in the fourth quarter, down from 52 in the third. Any reading below 50 means more negative than positive responses, and this is the weakest showing since the second quarter of 2025.
The survey covers chief executives of large U.S. companies, so it does not measure small business sentiment directly. Still, corporate budgets and hiring plans flow down to the freelancers and solo firms that serve those companies.
What The CEO Confidence Survey Actually Found
The poll reached 131 CEOs between September 21 and October 5. About 41% expect the economy to worsen over the next six months, up from 19% last quarter, while only 13% expect it to improve. For their own industries, 28% see conditions worsening, compared with 13% before.
Plans were mixed. Some 36% intend to raise capital spending and 11% plan cuts, while 33% expect to add staff and 31% expect to reduce headcount. The share planning pay raises of 4% or more rose to 16% from 9%.
On risks, 71% rated cybersecurity as high impact, 64% named AI and new technology, and 58% pointed to geopolitics. On AI, 48% expect value to come mainly from productivity and cost savings, and 94% cited cybersecurity threats as their top concern about it.
Why This Matters For Self-Employed Workers
When large clients feel uncertain, project budgets are often the first thing to get trimmed or delayed. Freelancers and consultants who depend on a few corporate accounts can feel that quickly, through slower approvals and shorter contracts.
The survey is not all negative for independents. Companies that do not want to add permanent staff sometimes turn to contractors, and the near-even split between those planning to hire and those planning to cut suggests firms are still weighing their options.
What Self-Employed Workers Should Do Next
Check how much of your income comes from your largest two or three clients, and talk with them now about their plans for the next two quarters. Ask about upcoming budgets before a surprise pause arrives.
Build a cash buffer if you can, and send invoices promptly so slow payers do not stretch your own timeline. Keep marketing to new clients even while current work is steady, since a pipeline is harder to rebuild after demand drops.
What To Watch Next
Watch the next jobs report, inflation data and Federal Reserve decisions for signs of whether the cautious mood spreads. Cybersecurity and AI were the top risks CEOs named, so services in those areas could see steady demand even as other budgets tighten.
Smaller firms are feeling their own pressure. Our report on a recent survey found that small firms say they are resilient but worry more about inflation, a useful companion read to the CEO view.
