President Trump’s first 100 days in office have been marked by economic disruption and uncertainty in the stock market. The S&P 500 index fell around 8% during this period, its worst performance since 1974. Trump’s sweeping tariffs have contributed to fears of a recession, and although a 90-day pause in tariff impositions brought a temporary recovery, economic uncertainties persist.
Investors must remain calm during market turbulence. Transformations in global trade and jobs create uncertainty, but history shows that markets have always recovered from significant downturns. Long-term historical data supports that staying invested is usually beneficial.
Data from BlackRock reveals that the U.S. stock market has consistently generated positive returns over 20-year rolling periods since 1936. Despite an average intra-year drop of almost 15% over the past 20 years, the market has yielded positive returns in 75% of those years. Different investors have different needs based on their life stages.
Younger investors might afford to be more aggressive and withstand market fluctuations, while those closer to retirement might prefer to safeguard their portfolios. Diversifying into safer assets like gold, shorter-term Treasury bonds, or certificates of deposit can help protect current portfolio value. The data clearly support that patience and long-term investment strategies often yield positive results, even in times of market uncertainty.
While it might be tempting to make rapid adjustments in response to short-term market moves, a measured approach focused on long-term growth can safeguard and potentially enhance your retirement savings. After 100 days into Donald Trump’s second presidency, it’s clear that the stock market is uneasy about his tariff policies. In the weeks following Trump’s election, both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 rose more than 4%, fueled by expectations of pro-business policies.
Now, both indexes have fallen more than 6% from their levels on Election Day, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq has dropped over 11%. The downturn began in February when Trump and his administration announced tariff plans for Mexico and Canada. Investor worries peaked in April after the U.S. and China introduced massive tariffs and Trump threatened to remove Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell.
Stock market’s volatile 100 days
Recent economic figures suggest businesses are bracing for tariffs by increasing inventories. The trade deficit hit a new record in the first quarter as companies front-ran tariffs,” said Bill Adams, Comerica Bank’s chief economist.
This high trade deficit has led to a -0.3% decline in GDP for the first quarter, as announced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A significant economic question looms over the 90-day pause on many of the tariffs Trump instituted in early April, which came after a stock market tumble and increased volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the “fear gauge,” surged to levels not seen since the COVID-19 pandemic’s early days before quickly settling back.
Currently, investors may be adopting a “wait and see” approach as Trump and his administration slowly pare back U.S. tariffs while also trying to reshape global trade and boost domestic manufacturing and jobs. Ongoing uncertainty is raising the risk of a recession, but recent market responses indicate that the U.S. administration is aware of the financial risks and costs involved. President Trump has made clear his intent to upend the established economic order.
In his tenure, he has made significant strides towards that goal within a relatively short timeframe. Trump’s actions include provoking a trade war, scrapping treaties, and suggesting that Washington might not defend Europe, while also dismantling significant portions of the governmental infrastructure that has historically provided expertise and stability. These shifts are profound, though the global context remains in flux.
Midterm elections could potentially reduce the Republican majority in Congress, and constitutionally, Trump’s presidency is limited to four years. This raises the question: Can the next president reverse the Trump administration’s actions? Cardinal Michael Czerny, a close aide to Pope Francis, commented on the Catholic Church’s lengthy history, noting, “There is nothing that we have done over 2,000 years that couldn’t be rolled back.” This sentiment mirrors the potential for change in global geopolitics.
However, historians and political scientists agree that some of Trump’s changes may be difficult to reverse, such as the erosion of democratic norms in the United States, which took generations to develop. The MAGA base and JD Vance will still be around long after Trump’s gone,” said Ian Goldin, professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford. He emphasized that the societal conditions which fueled the “Make America Great Again” movement—such as widening inequality and economic insecurity—persist.
This suggests that the movement could have a lasting presence. For the international community, concerns remain that another leader with Trump’s agenda could emerge in the future, maintaining a level of global uncertainty.
