Bitcoin traders are anticipating significant price gains for BTC as the cryptocurrency positions itself for potential volatility. This is spurred by incoming US GDP and PCE data.
The monthly candle close is also a pivotal focus for market participants, with BTC prices already up by 15% for the month.
BTC spent another day around $95,000 on April 30. This showcased calm trading conditions mere hours before the monthly close.
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Significant economic indicators are set to be released, including Q1 GDP and the March figures for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation. Consensus forecasts suggest a likely negative GDP result for Q1. Despite the potential for volatile movements across risk assets, confidence within the Bitcoin trading community remains high.
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Popular trader Cold Blooded Shiller noted that decision time is imminent for both BTC and the S&P 500. He envisions either a correction or a strong break into new highs. He remains inclined towards an upward expansion.
Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe echoed this sentiment. He forecasts a further upward leg for Bitcoin. Fellow trader Jelle also hinted at potential upside, with significant asks clustered around the $96,000 mark.
This indicates that traders are preparing for a possible breakout. April has demonstrated strong performance for BTC/USD. It marked the best monthly gains since April 2020, with the cryptocurrency up by 15% month-to-date.
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Rekt Capital, another notable trader and analyst, emphasized the importance of the monthly close within the $93,300–$96,500 range. A close at this level would solidify Bitcoin’s stance. However, a downside wick below $93,300 could still occur in May, similar to previous months.
Bitcoin’s current 7-day volatility of 7%, the lowest in 563 days, suggests a potential range expansion is imminent, according to analysts.
Forecasting gains amid pivotal data
The cryptocurrency has been trading in a tight consolidation near the $95,000 level for several days.
This consolidation just below a crucial resistance typically indicates an increased likelihood of an upside rally. However, traders should remain cautious as unexpected pullbacks could still occur. Bitcoin is forecasted to reach a record high of $120,000 this quarter, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick.
He attributes this potential surge to several key factors. These include economic uncertainties, increased investor demand, and potential reallocation away from US assets. Kendrick suggests that recent policy uncertainties and market jitters have diminished investor confidence in traditional safe-haven assets, such as US Treasuries and the dollar.
This creates an environment where Bitcoin could thrive. “While timing sharp rises in bitcoin is difficult, we think the current period of potential strategic asset reallocation away from US assets may trigger the next upswing,” Kendrick noted. Bitcoin, which had hit $109,000 in January, lost some momentum earlier this year but is poised for a fresh rally.
Kendrick sees renewed interest from investors driven by economic jitters. He points out that investor appetite for traditional safe-haven trades has been waning as markets grow unsettled about disruptions to long-term monetary and trade norms. The announcement of a 90-day delay on most reciprocal duties by President Donald Trump on April 9 has bolstered US investor interest in bitcoin.
Since the announcement, bitcoin has outperformed tech stocks, indicating a shift in investor preference for non-US assets. Bitcoin has risen by 24% since reaching a low of $76,000 on April 8. Kendrick also notes that large investors holding more than 1,000 bitcoins have been accumulating more tokens amid the price slump induced by tariffs.
Institutional support for Bitcoin is another factor to watch. Kendrick expects the latest 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, due in mid-May, to show increased buying from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. Overall, Kendrick’s bullish stance on bitcoin is supported by a combination of economic factors and investor behavior.
This suggests that the token could reach a new all-time high in the coming months. However, the market remains volatile and subject to swift changes. Traders should stay vigilant and conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.
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