According to estimates from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 is projected to be the lowest in recent years at 2.4%. This would be 0.1 percentage point lower than the 2025 COLA and the smallest increase since 2021, when the adjustment was 1.3%. The COLA provides an annual inflation adjustment for Social Security beneficiaries, including retirees, disabled individuals, and family members.
It is calculated by comparing third-quarter inflation data for the current year to that of the previous year, with the year-over-year difference determining the annual increase. However, experts suggest that developing factors could impact seniors‘ budgets and alter the initial projections. One such factor is the imposition of tariffs on imported goods, which could increase consumer prices and overall inflation, potentially leading to a higher COLA.
In this video, you can learn how the 2026 COLA — ( Under the Social Security COLA) is estimated at 2.4% — meaning it still falls short. Here you will understand better what you will actually receive.
Lower COLA and senior budgets
President Biden recently issued an executive order to reduce high prescription drug costs in the U.S. by aligning prices with those of other countries. While changing drug prices are unlikely to directly impact the COLA estimate, they would affect retirees’ personal budgets if drug prices go down.
TSCL’s “2025 Senior Survey” revealed that 20% of respondents spend at least $1,000 monthly on healthcare, while 57% of American seniors survive on less than $2,000 of take-home income per month. The survey also found that 94% of respondents felt that 2025’s COLA of 2.5% was too low. TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton stated, “If our predictions come true and the 2026 COLA comes in at the lowest we’ve seen since 2021, seniors will face additional pressure at a time when they’re already strained financially.
Our research shows that 73% of American seniors rely on Social Security for at least half their income, with 39% depending on the program for all of their income.
The Social Security Administration will announce the official COLA for 2026 in October, and the estimate can be recalculated every month based on new inflation data.